Resistance forces push military regime close to brink in Myanmar

Resistance forces push military regime close to brink in Myanmar
Before the offensive, the military’s control had seemed firmly ensconced with its vast superiority in troops and firepower, and aided with material support from Russia and China. (AP)
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Updated 28 October 2024
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Resistance forces push military regime close to brink in Myanmar

Resistance forces push military regime close to brink in Myanmar
  • Before the offensive, the military’s control had seemed firmly ensconced with its vast superiority in troops and firepower, and aided with material support from Russia and China
  • “To us it doesn’t look like there’s any viable route back for the military to recapture any of the territory that it’s lost”

BANGKOK: Three well-armed militias launched a surprise joint offensive in northeastern Myanmar a year ago, breaking a strategic stalemate with the regime’s military with rapid gains of huge swaths of territory and inspiring others to attack around the country.
The military’s control had seemed firmly ensconced with vast superiority in troops and firepower, plus material support from Russia and China. But today the government is increasingly on the back foot, with the loss of dozens of outposts, bases and strategic cities that even its leaders concede would be challenging to take back.
“The military is on the defensive all over the country, and every time it puts its energy into one part of the country, it basically has to shift troops and then is vulnerable in other parts,” said Connor Macdonald of the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar advocacy group.
“To us it doesn’t look like there’s any viable route back for the military to recapture any of the territory that it’s lost.”
The military seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021, triggering intensified fighting with long-established armed militias organized by Myanmar’s ethnic minority groups in its border regions, which have struggled for decades for more autonomy.
The army’s takeover also sparked the formation of pro-democracy militias known as People’s Defense Forces. They support the opposition National Unity Government, which was established by elected lawmakers barred from taking their seats after the army takeover.
But until the launch of Operation 1027, eponymously named for its Oct. 27 start, the military, known as the Tatmadaw, had largely been able to prevent major losses around the country.
Operation 1027 brought coordinated attacks from three of the most powerful ethnic armed groups, known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance: the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, the Arakan Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army. The alliance quickly captured towns and overran military bases and outposts along the Chinese border in northeastern Shan state.
Two weeks later, the Arakan Army launched attacks in its western home state of Rakhine, and since then other militia groups and PDFs have joined in around the country.
Myanmar’s military has been pushed back to the country’s center
A year after the offensive began, resistance forces now fully or partially control a vast horseshoe of territory. It starts in Rakhine state in the west, runs across the north and then heads south into Kayah and Kayin states along the Thai border. The Tatmadaw has pulled back toward central Myanmar, around the capital Naypyidaw and largest city of Yangon.
“I never thought our goals would be achieved so quickly,” Lway Yay Oo, spokesperson for the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, told The Associated Press. “We only thought that we would attack the military council together to the extent we could, but it has been easier than expected so we’ve been able to conquer more quickly.”
Along the way, the Tatmadaw has suffered some humiliating defeats, including the loss of the city of Laukkai in an assault in which the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army captured more than 2,000 troops, including six generals; and of the city of Lashio, which had been home to the military’s Northeast Command.
“The 1027 offensive was a highly impressive operation, quite complex, and the use of drones played a big role because basically they were able to dismantle the military’s network of fire-support bases across northern Shan,” said Morgan Michaels, a Singapore-based analyst with the International Institute of Strategic Studies who runs its Myanmar Conflict Map project.
“And then, once the military’s artillery support eroded, they were able to overrun harder targets like towns and battalion headquarters.”
A year later, the military is “substantially weakened,” he said, but it’s too early to write it off.
The military has been weakened, but not defeated
The Tatmadaw has managed to claw back the town of Kawlin in the Sagaing region, which had fallen in the first days of the 1027 offensive, stave off an attack by three ethnic Karenni militias on Loikaw, the capital of Kayah state, and has retained administrative control of Myawaddy, a key border crossing with Thailand, after holding off an assault by one ethnic group with the assistance of a rival militia.
Many expect the military to launch a counteroffensive when the rainy season soon comes to an end, bolstered by some 30,000 new troops since activating conscription in February and its complete air superiority.
But at the same time, resistance groups are closing in on Mandalay, Myanmar’s second largest city, in the center of the country.
And where they might be out-gunned, they have gained strength, hard-won experience and confidence over the last year, said the Ta’ang National Liberation Army’s Lway Yay Oo.
“We have military experience on our side, and based on this experience we can reinforce the fighting operation,” she said.
Thet Swe, a spokesperson for the military regime, conceded it will be a challenge for the Tatmadaw to dislodge the Three Brotherhood Alliance from the territory it has gained.
“We cannot take it back during one year,” he told the AP in an emailed answer to questions. “However, I hope that I will give you a joyful message ... in (the) coming two or three years.”
Civilian casualties rise as the military turns more to indiscriminate strikes
As the military has faced setbacks in the fighting on the ground, it has been increasingly relying on indiscriminate air and artillery strikes, resulting in a 95 percent increase in civilian deaths from airstrikes and a 170 percent increase in civilians killed by artillery since the 1027 offensive began, according to a report last month by the United Nations’ Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights.
The Tatmadaw has been accused of deliberately targeting civilians whom it believes support the resistance militias, a tactic that is only turning more against them, said Isabel Todd, coordinator for the SAC-M group.
“It doesn’t seem to be having the effect that they want it to have,” she said. “It’s making them even more hated by the population and really strengthening the resolve to ensure that this is the end of the Myanmar military as it’s known.”
Military spokesperson Thet Swe denied targeting civilians, saying it was militia groups that were responsible for killing civilians and burning villages.
Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been displaced by the fighting, and there are now more than 3 million internally displaced people in Myanmar overall, and some 18.6 million people in need, according to the UN
At the same time, the 2024 humanitarian response plan is only 1/3 funded, hindering the delivery of aid, said Sajjad Mohammad Sajid, head of the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs operation in Myanmar.
“The humanitarian outlook for the next year is grim, and we anticipate that the deteriorating situation will have a massive impact on the protection of civilians,” he said in an interview.
In some areas, however, the offensive has eased pressure, like northwestern Chin state, which borders Bangladesh and India and had previously been the focus of many of the Tatmadaw’s operations, said Salai Htet Ni, a spokesperson for the Chin National Front whose armed wing has been involved in fighting the military.
“In October of last year the military convoys that were going up into the Chin mountains were withdrawn,” he said. “As a result of the 1027 operation there have been almost no major military activities.”
Success brings new tensions between resistance groups
As the front has expanded it has seen militias advancing out of their own ethnic areas, like when Rakhine-based Arakan Army in January seized the Chin town of Paletwa, which has given rise to some friction between groups, foreshadowing possible future strife should the Tatmadaw eventually fall.
In the case of Paletwa, Salai Htet Ni said his group was happy that the AA took it from the Tatmadaw, but added that there should have been negotiations before they began operating in Chin territory and that the AA should now bring Chin forces in to help administer the area.
“Negotiations are mandatory for these regional administration issues,” he said. “But we will negotiate this case through dialogue, not military means.”
At the moment there is a degree of solidarity between the different ethnic groups as they focus on a common enemy, but Aung Thu Nyein, director of communications for the Institute for Strategy and Policy-Myanmar think tank said that does not translate to common aspirations.
Should the Tatmadaw fall, it could lead to the fragmentation of Myanmar unless the groups work hard to resolve political and territorial differences.
“As far as I see, there is no established mechanism to resolve the issues,” he said. “The resistance being able to bring down the junta is unlikely, but I cannot discount this scenario, (and) if we cannot build trust and common goals, it could lead to the scenario of Syria.”
Chinese interests and ties with both sides complicate the picture
Complicating the political picture is the influence of neighboring China, which is believed to have tacitly supported the 1027 offensive in what turned out to be a successful bid to largely shut down organized crime activities that had been flourishing along its border.
In January, Beijing used its close ties with both the Tatmadaw and the Three Brotherhood groups to negotiate a ceasefire in northern Shan, which lasted for five months until the ethnic alliance opened phase two of the 1027 offensive in June, accusing the military of violating the ceasefire.
China has been displeased with the development, shutting down border crossings, cutting electricity to Myanmar towns and taking other measures in a thus-far unsuccessful attempt to end the fighting.
Its support for the regime also seems to be growing, with China’s envoy to Myanmar urging the powerful United Wa State Army, which wasn’t involved in the 1027 offensive or related fighting, to actively pressure the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and Ta’ang National Liberation Army to halt the renewed offensive, according to leaked details of an August meeting widely reported by local media.
There is no evidence that the UWSA has done that, however.
“The idea that the northern groups and the Three Brotherhood Alliance etc. are somehow just agents of China is a complete misconception,” Todd said.
“They have their own objectives which they are pursuing that are independent of what China may or may not want them to do, and that’s apparent in the incredible amount of pressure that China has put on them recently.”
Because of the grassroot support for the resistance, it is less vulnerable to outside influence, said Kyaw Zaw, a spokesperson for the opposition National Unity Government.
“No matter who is putting pressure on us, we are winning because of the power of the people,” he said.


India’s Modi invited to meet with Trump next week — White House official

India’s Modi invited to meet with Trump next week — White House official
Updated 04 February 2025
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India’s Modi invited to meet with Trump next week — White House official

India’s Modi invited to meet with Trump next week — White House official
  • Invitation reportedly came hours after a US military plane departed to return deported migrants to India
  • New Delhi keen to avoid tariffs that Trump has threatened in the past, citing India’s high tariffs on US goods

WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump has invited Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to visit the White House next week, a White House official said, hours after a US military plane departed to return deported migrants to the country.

Trump spoke with Modi on Jan. 27, when he discussed immigration and stressed the importance of India buying more American-made security equipment and fair bilateral trading ties.

India, a strategic partner of the United States in its efforts to counter China, is keen to enhance trade relations with the US and make it easier for its citizens to get skilled worker visas.

It is also keen to avoid tariffs that Trump has threatened in the past, citing India’s high tariffs on US products.

The United States is India’s largest trading partner and two-way trade between the two countries surpassed $118 billion in 2023/24, with India posting a trade surplus of $32 billion. 


Philippines, US joint air patrol exercises underway over South China Sea

Philippines, US joint air patrol exercises underway over South China Sea
Updated 04 February 2025
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Philippines, US joint air patrol exercises underway over South China Sea

Philippines, US joint air patrol exercises underway over South China Sea
  • The one-day exercise was being carried out in the West Philippine Sea
  • Two of the Philippines’ FA-50 fighter aircrafts participating, along with two US B1-B bombers

MANILA: The air forces of the Philippines and the United States were holding joint patrols over the South China Sea on Tuesday, a spokesperson for the Philippine Air Force said.
The one-day exercise was being carried out in the West Philippine Sea, Philippine air force spokesperson Maria Consuelo Castillo said, using Manila’s term for waters in the South China Sea that fall within its exclusive economic zone.
Castillo said the two of the Philippines’ FA-50 fighter aircrafts were participating, along with two US B1-B bombers.


How China could respond to Trump’s new tariffs

How China could respond to Trump’s new tariffs
Updated 04 February 2025
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How China could respond to Trump’s new tariffs

How China could respond to Trump’s new tariffs
  • Exports of Chinese goods to the US in 2024 exceeded $400 billion, as against US exports to China at $130 billion
  • Trump has ordered an in-depth review of Chinese trade practices, the results of which are due by April 1

BEIJING: From retaliatory tariffs on US goods like car parts and soy beans to controls on raw minerals essential for American manufacturing — analysts say China has plenty of options if it wants to reply to fresh US levies.
US President Donald Trump over the weekend announced 10 percent tariffs on Chinese products, upping the stakes in a trade confrontation between the global superpowers that started eight years ago in his first term.
Beijing in response warned there were “no winners” in a trade war and vowed as yet unspecified countermeasures.
News that Canada and Mexico had agreed a deal with Trump to delay 25 percent tariffs on their goods was followed by his announcement that he would be holding talks with China “probably in the next 24 hours” to try for an agreement.
But, as the threat of new measures continues to hang over Beijing, eyes are on what officials there have lined up as a response.
With its economy still struggling with sluggish consumption and slow growth, observers expect China to keep its powder dry for now — at least until another round of tariffs that could do greater damage.
“We expect China not to jump to immediate retaliation following the 10 percent tariff hike, but will keep the doors of negotiation and cooperation open,” UBS bank analysts wrote in a note.
“We do not expect China to follow the same strategy as in the first round of tariff hikes in 2018-19.”
Bilateral trade totalled more than $530 billion in 2024, according to US data, with exports of Chinese goods to the United States exceeding $400 billion. That was second only to Mexico.
But that yawning trade imbalance — $270.4 billion in January-November last year — has long raised hackles in Washington.

Key US demands in the first trade war were greater access to China’s markets, broad reform of a business playing field that heavily favors Chinese firms, and a loosening of heavy state controls.
This time around Washington has also called for China to crack down on exports to Mexico of chemical components used to make the synthetic opioid fentanyl, responsible for tens of thousands of overdose deaths a year.
After long, fraught negotiations during Trump’s first term the two agreed what became known as the “phase one” deal — a ceasefire in the nearly two-year-old trade war.
Beijing was quick to retaliate throughout that standoff — imposing tariffs of its own on everything from cars to soybeans, designed to inflict harm on Trump’s voting base in rural America.
It also floated restrictions on exports of rare earth metals, of which China dominates global supplies and on which the United States remains heavily dependent.
And should a new trade war escalate, “measures could include tariffs, export controls on critical minerals essential for US manufacturing, restricted market access to US firms operating in China, or the depreciation of the yuan,” Harry Murphy Cruise, head of China and Australia economics at Moody’s Analytics, told AFP.
But he added Beijing may have learned its lesson from the first standoff.
“The tit-for-tat trade war in Trump’s first term benefited no one; it made trade more costly and hindered growth in both countries,” Murphy Cruise said.

For now, analysts believe the latest measures won’t bite too hard.
“The 10 percent tariff is not a big shock to China’s economy,” Zhang Zhiwei at Pinpoint Asset Management said in a note.
“It’s unlikely to change the market expectation on China’s macro outlook this year, which already factored in higher tariffs from the US,” he added.
And that could allow China to keep its powder dry in the event Trump’s first wave of tariffs are the prelude to a bigger showdown.
The US president has ordered an in-depth review of Chinese trade practices, the results of which are due by April 1.
That could serve as a “catalyst for more tariffs,” said Murphy Cruise, pushing Beijing to shift tactics.
“This strategy of no retaliation may change if the US imposes additional significant tariffs later on,” UBS economists said.
“In such a case, we think China may retaliate on a targeted basis and in a restrained manner, imposing tariffs on selected agricultural products, auto parts, energy,” they said.
Experts added that China could also let the value of its currency devalue, increasing the competitiveness of its exports.
Trump’s flagged talks with Beijing offer the two sides a chance to step back from the brink of a trade war that could hit hundreds of billions’ worth of goods.
“China is looking to diffuse tensions,” Murphy Cruise said.
“China’s economy is in a much weaker position this time around; it will be substantially harder to withstand a barrage of tariffs.”
 


Greece suggests disciplinary charges over 2023 migrant shipwreck that killed over 250 Pakistanis

Greece suggests disciplinary charges over 2023 migrant shipwreck that killed over 250 Pakistanis
Updated 04 February 2025
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Greece suggests disciplinary charges over 2023 migrant shipwreck that killed over 250 Pakistanis

Greece suggests disciplinary charges over 2023 migrant shipwreck that killed over 250 Pakistanis
  • Boat sank off southwestern coastal town of Pylos on June 14, 2023 with about 750 people on board
  • Trawler had left Libya for Italy and was monitored by Greek coast guard for nearly 12 hours before capsizing

ATHENS: A Greek Ombudsman has recommended disciplinary action against eight coast guard officers for alleged dereliction of duty in one of the deadliest migrant shipwrecks off Greece in which hundreds died in 2023.

The inquiry is the first to conclude on the circumstances surrounding the shipwreck off the southwestern coastal town of Pylos on June 14, 2023, which sank in plain sight of Greek coast guard authorities with about 750 people on board.

The trawler, named Adriana, had left Libya for Italy and was monitored by the Greek coast guard for nearly 12 hours before capsizing and sinking in international waters. Only 104 people are known to have survived.

In a report released Monday, Ombudsman Andreas Pottakis said there were “clear indications” that eight senior coast guard officers had a case to answer for dereliction of search and rescue duties, and which resulted in endangering lives of those aboard the Ariana.

The Greek coast guard did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Coast Guard authorities have repeatedly denied any wrongdoing over the handling of the case that raised questions about the European Union’s tactics on migration.

The inquiry was launched by the Ombudsman in June 2023 after the Greek coast guard rejected his calls to launch an internal investigation into the incident.

About 10 officers were called to testify as suspects, including the Commandant.

Pottakis’s findings have been forwarded to Greece’s Shipping Minister for further action, the Ombudsman’s office said.

“The transparency of administrative action and the attribution of responsibilities, where applicable, for the deadly shipwreck of Pylos is an elementary legal demand, inextricably linked to respect of rule of law, as is the thorough investigation of any other incident related to violation of the right to life, health and physical integrity,” a statement from Pottakis’s office said.

A local naval court, which opened a criminal investigation last year, has concluded a preliminary investigation and referred the case to a chief prosecutor, lawyers representing the survivors and victims said last month, after reviewing the legal files of the case.

They said a preliminary investigation failed to shed light on the incident and more evidence had to be examined by the court.


Malaysia PM says will build trade relations, not wait for US tariffs

Malaysia PM says will build trade relations, not wait for US tariffs
Updated 04 February 2025
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Malaysia PM says will build trade relations, not wait for US tariffs

Malaysia PM says will build trade relations, not wait for US tariffs

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia will actively build trade relations with other countries, such as China, Russia and Brazil, instead of waiting for the impact of potential US trade tariffs, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said on Tuesday.
Anwar told parliament waiting for United States’ tariffs would have a negative impact on Malaysia, adding there was uncertainty following US President Donald Trump’s 30-day pause on tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
US tariffs on China are still due to take effect.
Anwar said Malaysia could not act hastily in countering tariffs as there remained many geopolitical uncertainties.
“On our part, we must take proactive steps... to aggressively open a wider network of trading partners,” Anwar said.